Weekly Market UpdateWeek of Sep 21, 2026Sep 18, 2026
Stock Market Near Its High. Will Leadership Change?
The S&P 500 remains close to its high, but participation has narrowed and the Momentum factor sits further below its own peak.
Three Things to Know This Week
The stock market remains near its high
S&P 500: 1.7% below its 52-week high
- Trend: Strong · Risk: Low & Falling · Position: Near Trend
- The index remains close to its high even as participation underneath it has weakened.
Leadership could change
Breadth 51.3% · Momentum factor +24.2% YTD
- Breadth fell from 56.3% last week and 71.5% four weeks ago.
- The Momentum factor still leads this year, but is 8.4% below its high versus only 1.7% for the S&P 500.
Bonds split after the Fed
TLT +0.5% WTD · IEF -0.2%
- Investment-grade credit gained 0.4%.
- High-yield credit slipped 0.1%.
State of the Stock Market
Current Market State · Week ended Sep 18, 2026
Trend: Strong
Risk: Low & Falling · Position: Near Trend
- The S&P 500 remains above its primary trend measures, while realized volatility remains contained.
- The important change this week is not the index trend itself. It is participation underneath the index.
Market breadthNarrowing
Above 200-day MA
51.3%
-5.0pp vs Sep 10
Above 50-day MA
28.2%
-4.0pp vs Sep 10
Above all 3 MAs
23.1%
-2.9pp vs Sep 10
Within 2% of 52-week high
7.0%
+2.4pp vs Sep 10
Cross-asset performance
Total returns across core market exposures and horizons, shown side by side through September 18, 2026.
Tip: click any ticker to analyze it.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad commoditiesDBC | Broad commodities, Week to date: down 0.7 percent | Broad commodities, Month to date: up 5.2 percent | Broad commodities, Quarter to date: up 23.5 percent | Broad commodities, Year to date: up 47.3 percent | Broad commodities, 1 year: up 51.7 percent | Broad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.8 percent | Broad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 14.2 percent | Broad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.4 percent |
| Emerging marketsEEM | Emerging markets, Week to date: down 1.2 percent | Emerging markets, Month to date: up 0.0 percent | Emerging markets, Quarter to date: down 2.0 percent | Emerging markets, Year to date: up 23.2 percent | Emerging markets, 1 year: up 28.6 percent | Emerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 22.6 percent | Emerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.0 percent | Emerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.6 percent |
| U.S. small companiesIJR | U.S. small companies, Week to date: down 2.0 percent | U.S. small companies, Month to date: down 3.5 percent | U.S. small companies, Quarter to date: down 6.0 percent | U.S. small companies, Year to date: up 16.5 percent | U.S. small companies, 1 year: up 16.6 percent | U.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.7 percent | U.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.6 percent | U.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.3 percent |
| S&P 500IVV | S&P 500, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | S&P 500, Month to date: down 0.5 percent | S&P 500, Quarter to date: up 2.4 percent | S&P 500, Year to date: up 12.6 percent | S&P 500, 1 year: up 16.6 percent | S&P 500, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 21.3 percent | S&P 500, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.1 percent | S&P 500, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.4 percent |
| International developedEFA | International developed, Week to date: down 1.6 percent | International developed, Month to date: down 2.3 percent | International developed, Quarter to date: up 1.0 percent | International developed, Year to date: up 11.0 percent | International developed, 1 year: up 16.3 percent | International developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 17.5 percent | International developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.8 percent | International developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent |
| Real estateVNQ | Real estate, Week to date: down 2.0 percent | Real estate, Month to date: down 3.7 percent | Real estate, Quarter to date: down 3.7 percent | Real estate, Year to date: up 7.1 percent | Real estate, 1 year: up 4.6 percent | Real estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 8.9 percent | Real estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.1 percent | Real estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.9 percent |
| High-yield creditHYG | High-yield credit, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | High-yield credit, Month to date: down 1.1 percent | High-yield credit, Quarter to date: down 0.3 percent | High-yield credit, Year to date: up 1.4 percent | High-yield credit, 1 year: up 2.6 percent | High-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 7.9 percent | High-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.4 percent | High-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.5 percent |
| GoldGLD | Gold, Week to date: up 0.6 percent | Gold, Month to date: down 1.8 percent | Gold, Quarter to date: up 8.9 percent | Gold, Year to date: up 1.2 percent | Gold, 1 year: up 19.5 percent | Gold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 30.8 percent | Gold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 19.6 percent | Gold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.4 percent |
| U.S. aggregate bondsAGG | U.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: down 0.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: down 1.1 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: down 2.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 1.3 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: down 0.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.5 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.3 percent |
| Investment-grade creditLQD | Investment-grade credit, Week to date: up 0.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, Month to date: down 1.0 percent | Investment-grade credit, Quarter to date: down 2.8 percent | Investment-grade credit, Year to date: down 2.0 percent | Investment-grade credit, 1 year: down 2.0 percent | Investment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.6 percent | Investment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 1.1 percent | Investment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 2.1 percent |
| Long-duration TreasuriesTLT | Long-duration Treasuries, Week to date: up 0.5 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Month to date: down 1.2 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: down 4.9 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 3.9 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 year: down 4.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: down 0.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.2 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Sep 18, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
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Chart of the Week
Momentum Factor vs. Value Factor vs. S&P 500 — 2026 YTD
- Momentum factor
- Value factor
- S&P 500
Cumulative total return, rebased to 0.0% at the December 31, 2025 close. Source: Momentum factor (MTUM), Value factor (IVE) and S&P 500 (IVV) adjusted close, EODHD total return · Data through Sep 18, 2026
Deep Dive
Is leadership changing?
- The Momentum factor remains the 2026 leader, up about 24.2% YTD.
- It sits 8.4% below its 52-week high, while the S&P 500 is only 1.7% below its high.
- Improving breadth, equal-weight performance and new sector highs would support rotation; continued breadth deterioration would support narrowing leadership.
Investment styles
Total returns across key factor and style exposures, shown side by side through September 18, 2026.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum factorMTUM | Momentum factor, Week to date: up 1.0 percent | Momentum factor, Month to date: up 3.3 percent | Momentum factor, Quarter to date: down 9.5 percent | Momentum factor, Year to date: up 24.2 percent | Momentum factor, 1 year: up 23.2 percent | Momentum factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 30.2 percent | Momentum factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.6 percent | Momentum factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 16.4 percent |
| Small ValueIJS | Small Value, Week to date: down 2.1 percent | Small Value, Month to date: down 3.5 percent | Small Value, Quarter to date: down 3.5 percent | Small Value, Year to date: up 16.7 percent | Small Value, 1 year: up 18.8 percent | Small Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.7 percent | Small Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.6 percent | Small Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.8 percent |
| Small GrowthIJT | Small Growth, Week to date: down 1.9 percent | Small Growth, Month to date: down 3.7 percent | Small Growth, Quarter to date: down 8.5 percent | Small Growth, Year to date: up 16.1 percent | Small Growth, 1 year: up 14.4 percent | Small Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.3 percent | Small Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.3 percent | Small Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.2 percent |
| Large GrowthIVW | Large Growth, Week to date: up 0.7 percent | Large Growth, Month to date: up 0.5 percent | Large Growth, Quarter to date: up 2.0 percent | Large Growth, Year to date: up 14.0 percent | Large Growth, 1 year: up 17.3 percent | Large Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 26.2 percent | Large Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.4 percent | Large Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 17.7 percent |
| Mid GrowthIJK | Mid Growth, Week to date: down 1.4 percent | Mid Growth, Month to date: down 2.8 percent | Mid Growth, Quarter to date: down 6.4 percent | Mid Growth, Year to date: up 13.8 percent | Mid Growth, 1 year: up 13.6 percent | Mid Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.9 percent | Mid Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.1 percent | Mid Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.8 percent |
| Equal WeightRSP | Equal Weight, Week to date: down 1.2 percent | Equal Weight, Month to date: down 3.2 percent | Equal Weight, Quarter to date: down 0.2 percent | Equal Weight, Year to date: up 11.7 percent | Equal Weight, 1 year: up 14.2 percent | Equal Weight, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.7 percent | Equal Weight, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.6 percent | Equal Weight, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.8 percent |
| Quality factorQUAL | Quality factor, Week to date: down 0.2 percent | Quality factor, Month to date: down 1.3 percent | Quality factor, Quarter to date: up 0.1 percent | Quality factor, Year to date: up 11.0 percent | Quality factor, 1 year: up 16.2 percent | Quality factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.6 percent | Quality factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.2 percent | Quality factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 14.3 percent |
| Large ValueIVE | Large Value, Week to date: down 1.1 percent | Large Value, Month to date: down 1.6 percent | Large Value, Quarter to date: up 2.5 percent | Large Value, Year to date: up 10.6 percent | Large Value, 1 year: up 15.4 percent | Large Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.2 percent | Large Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.6 percent | Large Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.9 percent |
| Mid ValueIJJ | Mid Value, Week to date: down 2.1 percent | Mid Value, Month to date: down 3.0 percent | Mid Value, Quarter to date: down 3.8 percent | Mid Value, Year to date: up 8.7 percent | Mid Value, 1 year: up 9.6 percent | Mid Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.0 percent | Mid Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.5 percent | Mid Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.2 percent |
| Minimum VolatilityUSMV | Minimum Volatility, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | Minimum Volatility, Month to date: down 2.8 percent | Minimum Volatility, Quarter to date: up 2.3 percent | Minimum Volatility, Year to date: up 5.6 percent | Minimum Volatility, 1 year: up 6.5 percent | Minimum Volatility, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.5 percent | Minimum Volatility, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.1 percent | Minimum Volatility, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Sep 18, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Three Things We're Watching
Does breadth stabilize?
- We are looking for participation to stop deteriorating while the index remains near its high.
Does leadership rotate?
- A recovery in equal-weight stocks, Value or additional sectors would point toward broader leadership.
What happens across rates?
- We are watching whether that split persists and whether rate-sensitive equity groups respond.
Notes & methodology
Weekly, computed from total-return adjusted closes through the stated data-through date. One investable ETF proxy is tracked per exposure; the S&P 500 is measured by IVV.
AI assistance. This publication is produced with interactive assistance from large language models, including analysis and drafting. TrendToWealth defines the methodology and editorial requirements and reviews numerical claims against the underlying data and sources before publication.
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