Weekly Market UpdateWeek of Oct 5, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Led — How Often Historically?
MTUM +1.4% vs. S&P 500 −0.2% this week.
Three Things to Know This Week
Momentum led styles
MTUM +1.4% | S&P 500 -0.2%
- Mid-cap growth followed at +1.1%.
Technology led sectors
Technology +1.8%
- Health care trailed at -2.6%.
Gold and long bonds fell
Gold -3.4% | Long Treasuries -2.3%
- Both declined alongside the S&P 500.
State of the Stock Market
S&P 500 · Oct 2, 2026
Trend: Strong
3/3 moving averages above · 12 trading sessions in this strong trend since Sep 17, 2026
Risk
Low & Falling
63-day realized vol 11.0% · reference 15.1%
From 52-week high
-0.8%
52-week high set Aug 13, 2026
Position
Near Trend
Relative to the S&P 500's own 200-day trend history
Distance from trend
50-Day
+1.0%
12 trading sessions above since Sep 17, 2026
100-Day
+2.3%
123 trading sessions above since Apr 9, 2026
200-Day
+7.4%
124 trading sessions above since Apr 8, 2026
Broad markets
Total returns across major market exposures and horizons, shown side by side.
Tip: click any ticker to analyze it.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad commoditiesDBC | Broad commodities, Week to date: down 0.2 percent | Broad commodities, Month to date: up 0.7 percent | Broad commodities, Quarter to date: up 0.7 percent | Broad commodities, Year to date: up 45.5 percent | Broad commodities, 1 year: up 47.5 percent | Broad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.2 percent | Broad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.8 percent | Broad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
| Emerging marketsEEM | Emerging markets, Week to date: down 0.5 percent | Emerging markets, Month to date: up 1.3 percent | Emerging markets, Quarter to date: up 1.3 percent | Emerging markets, Year to date: up 24.3 percent | Emerging markets, 1 year: up 30.9 percent | Emerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 24.2 percent | Emerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.6 percent | Emerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.4 percent |
| U.S. small companiesIJR | U.S. small companies, Week to date: up 0.2 percent | U.S. small companies, Month to date: up 1.8 percent | U.S. small companies, Quarter to date: up 1.8 percent | U.S. small companies, Year to date: up 16.2 percent | U.S. small companies, 1 year: up 18.4 percent | U.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.4 percent | U.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.1 percent | U.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.0 percent |
| U.S. equitiesIVV | U.S. equities, Week to date: down 0.2 percent | U.S. equities, Month to date: up 0.9 percent | U.S. equities, Quarter to date: up 0.9 percent | U.S. equities, Year to date: up 13.8 percent | U.S. equities, 1 year: up 17.7 percent | U.S. equities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.2 percent | U.S. equities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.7 percent | U.S. equities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.4 percent |
| International developedEFA | International developed, Week to date: down 1.5 percent | International developed, Month to date: up 0.1 percent | International developed, Quarter to date: up 0.1 percent | International developed, Year to date: up 10.0 percent | International developed, 1 year: up 16.1 percent | International developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.3 percent | International developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 9.2 percent | International developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.0 percent |
| Real estateVNQ | Real estate, Week to date: down 1.6 percent | Real estate, Month to date: down 0.1 percent | Real estate, Quarter to date: down 0.1 percent | Real estate, Year to date: up 4.0 percent | Real estate, 1 year: up 2.0 percent | Real estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.0 percent | Real estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.0 percent | Real estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.4 percent |
| High-yield creditHYG | High-yield credit, Week to date: down 0.8 percent | High-yield credit, Month to date: up 0.1 percent | High-yield credit, Quarter to date: up 0.1 percent | High-yield credit, Year to date: down 0.3 percent | High-yield credit, 1 year: up 1.1 percent | High-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 7.8 percent | High-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.1 percent | High-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.2 percent |
| U.S. aggregate bondsAGG | U.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: down 0.6 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: up 0.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: up 0.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 2.7 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: down 1.6 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.1 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.7 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.1 percent |
| GoldGLD | Gold, Week to date: down 3.4 percent | Gold, Month to date: down 0.2 percent | Gold, Quarter to date: down 0.2 percent | Gold, Year to date: down 4.1 percent | Gold, 1 year: up 9.6 percent | Gold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 30.4 percent | Gold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 18.2 percent | Gold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.7 percent |
| Investment-grade creditLQD | Investment-grade credit, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | Investment-grade credit, Month to date: up 0.1 percent | Investment-grade credit, Quarter to date: up 0.1 percent | Investment-grade credit, Year to date: down 4.3 percent | Investment-grade credit, 1 year: down 3.7 percent | Investment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.7 percent | Investment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 1.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.7 percent |
| Long-duration TreasuriesTLT | Long-duration Treasuries, Week to date: down 2.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Month to date: down 0.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: down 0.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 8.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 year: down 8.9 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: down 0.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.8 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 2, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
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S&P 500 sectors
Total returns for the 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EnergyXLE | Energy, Week to date: up 1.3 percent | Energy, Month to date: up 2.1 percent | Energy, Quarter to date: up 2.1 percent | Energy, Year to date: up 43.3 percent | Energy, 1 year: up 40.5 percent | Energy, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.2 percent | Energy, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 22.7 percent | Energy, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.2 percent |
| Information TechnologyXLK | Information Technology, Week to date: up 1.8 percent | Information Technology, Month to date: up 2.1 percent | Information Technology, Quarter to date: up 2.1 percent | Information Technology, Year to date: up 38.8 percent | Information Technology, 1 year: up 43.9 percent | Information Technology, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 35.4 percent | Information Technology, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 22.3 percent | Information Technology, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 24.9 percent |
| IndustrialsXLI | Industrials, Week to date: down 0.3 percent | Industrials, Month to date: up 1.8 percent | Industrials, Quarter to date: up 1.8 percent | Industrials, Year to date: up 9.6 percent | Industrials, 1 year: up 12.4 percent | Industrials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.4 percent | Industrials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.0 percent | Industrials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 13.1 percent |
| MaterialsXLB | Materials, Week to date: down 1.9 percent | Materials, Month to date: up 0.3 percent | Materials, Quarter to date: up 0.3 percent | Materials, Year to date: up 8.6 percent | Materials, 1 year: up 11.5 percent | Materials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 9.5 percent | Materials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.0 percent | Materials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.5 percent |
| Health CareXLV | Health Care, Week to date: down 2.6 percent | Health Care, Month to date: down 1.3 percent | Health Care, Quarter to date: down 1.3 percent | Health Care, Year to date: up 8.3 percent | Health Care, 1 year: up 24.2 percent | Health Care, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.6 percent | Health Care, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.1 percent | Health Care, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.5 percent |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | Consumer Staples, Week to date: down 1.9 percent | Consumer Staples, Month to date: down 0.1 percent | Consumer Staples, Quarter to date: down 0.1 percent | Consumer Staples, Year to date: up 3.7 percent | Consumer Staples, 1 year: up 5.4 percent | Consumer Staples, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 8.0 percent | Consumer Staples, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.8 percent | Consumer Staples, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 7.0 percent |
| Real EstateXLRE | Real Estate, Week to date: down 1.8 percent | Real Estate, Month to date: down 0.2 percent | Real Estate, Quarter to date: down 0.2 percent | Real Estate, Year to date: up 3.6 percent | Real Estate, 1 year: up 0.9 percent | Real Estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent | Real Estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.5 percent | Real Estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 5.8 percent |
| FinancialsXLF | Financials, Week to date: down 2.5 percent | Financials, Month to date: up 0.2 percent | Financials, Quarter to date: up 0.2 percent | Financials, Year to date: down 2.3 percent | Financials, 1 year: up 0.5 percent | Financials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.0 percent | Financials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.8 percent | Financials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.7 percent |
| Communication ServicesXLC | Communication Services, Week to date: down 2.3 percent | Communication Services, Month to date: down 0.6 percent | Communication Services, Quarter to date: down 0.6 percent | Communication Services, Year to date: down 5.4 percent | Communication Services, 1 year: down 5.5 percent | Communication Services, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.3 percent | Communication Services, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.4 percent | Communication Services, 10 years annualised, annualised: not available |
| UtilitiesXLU | Utilities, Week to date: up 0.8 percent | Utilities, Month to date: up 1.0 percent | Utilities, Quarter to date: up 1.0 percent | Utilities, Year to date: down 6.7 percent | Utilities, 1 year: down 6.3 percent | Utilities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.6 percent | Utilities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.5 percent | Utilities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.3 percent |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | Consumer Discretionary, Week to date: down 0.5 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Month to date: up 1.1 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Quarter to date: up 1.1 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Year to date: down 7.8 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 1 year: down 7.6 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.8 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 4.8 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.8 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 2, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Investment styles
Total returns across major U.S. style and factor exposures across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum factorMTUM | Momentum factor, Week to date: up 1.4 percent | Momentum factor, Month to date: up 1.7 percent | Momentum factor, Quarter to date: up 1.7 percent | Momentum factor, Year to date: up 29.5 percent | Momentum factor, 1 year: up 27.6 percent | Momentum factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 33.3 percent | Momentum factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 14.0 percent | Momentum factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 16.7 percent |
| Large GrowthIVW | Large Growth, Week to date: up 0.4 percent | Large Growth, Month to date: up 1.2 percent | Large Growth, Quarter to date: up 1.2 percent | Large Growth, Year to date: up 17.1 percent | Large Growth, 1 year: up 20.6 percent | Large Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 28.8 percent | Large Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 14.8 percent | Large Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 17.9 percent |
| Small GrowthIJT | Small Growth, Week to date: up 0.5 percent | Small Growth, Month to date: up 1.9 percent | Small Growth, Quarter to date: up 1.9 percent | Small Growth, Year to date: up 16.4 percent | Small Growth, 1 year: up 16.8 percent | Small Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.3 percent | Small Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.3 percent | Small Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent |
| Mid GrowthIJK | Mid Growth, Week to date: up 1.1 percent | Mid Growth, Month to date: up 2.0 percent | Mid Growth, Quarter to date: up 2.0 percent | Mid Growth, Year to date: up 15.9 percent | Mid Growth, 1 year: up 17.2 percent | Mid Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.5 percent | Mid Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.8 percent | Mid Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.9 percent |
| Small ValueIJS | Small Value, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | Small Value, Month to date: up 1.8 percent | Small Value, Quarter to date: up 1.8 percent | Small Value, Year to date: up 15.8 percent | Small Value, 1 year: up 20.0 percent | Small Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.3 percent | Small Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.6 percent | Small Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent |
| Quality factorQUAL | Quality factor, Week to date: up 0.4 percent | Quality factor, Month to date: up 1.0 percent | Quality factor, Quarter to date: up 1.0 percent | Quality factor, Year to date: up 13.7 percent | Quality factor, 1 year: up 17.6 percent | Quality factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.6 percent | Quality factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.3 percent | Quality factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 14.4 percent |
| Equal WeightRSP | Equal Weight, Week to date: down 0.7 percent | Equal Weight, Month to date: up 0.8 percent | Equal Weight, Quarter to date: up 0.8 percent | Equal Weight, Year to date: up 10.8 percent | Equal Weight, 1 year: up 13.0 percent | Equal Weight, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.8 percent | Equal Weight, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.5 percent | Equal Weight, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.5 percent |
| Large ValueIVE | Large Value, Week to date: down 1.0 percent | Large Value, Month to date: up 0.6 percent | Large Value, Quarter to date: up 0.6 percent | Large Value, Year to date: up 9.5 percent | Large Value, 1 year: up 13.6 percent | Large Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.3 percent | Large Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.3 percent | Large Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.6 percent |
| Mid ValueIJJ | Mid Value, Week to date: up 0.0 percent | Mid Value, Month to date: up 2.0 percent | Mid Value, Quarter to date: up 2.0 percent | Mid Value, Year to date: up 8.0 percent | Mid Value, 1 year: up 10.1 percent | Mid Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.6 percent | Mid Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.9 percent | Mid Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.8 percent |
| Minimum VolatilityUSMV | Minimum Volatility, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | Minimum Volatility, Month to date: up 0.8 percent | Minimum Volatility, Quarter to date: up 0.8 percent | Minimum Volatility, Year to date: up 5.4 percent | Minimum Volatility, 1 year: up 5.4 percent | Minimum Volatility, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 12.5 percent | Minimum Volatility, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.6 percent | Minimum Volatility, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.0 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 2, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Chart of the Week
Momentum vs. S&P 500
3M · Outperform 57%+3.1%
3M · Underperform 43%−3.3%
6M · Outperform 58%+4.9%
6M · Underperform 42%−4.7%
1Y · Outperform 62%+6.5%
1Y · Underperform 38%−6.8%
3Y · Outperform 60%+16.5%
3Y · Underperform 40%−16.4%
5Y · Outperform 50%+27.0%
5Y · Underperform 50%−24.3%
10Y · Outperform 64%+16.4%
10Y · Underperform 36%−11.9%
*Average gaps are percentage-point return differences, shown with %. Full holding period, not per year. Source: TTW / EODHD, MTUM vs. IVV total returns; Apr 2013–Sep 2026. Overlapping monthly windows. · Data through Sep 30, 2026
Momentum outperformed in 62% of one-year periods.
Three Things We're Watching
Will rates continue to rise?
Treasury yields
- Watch the 10-year Treasury yield.
Will the S&P 500 break its all-time high?
Record close
- Watch for a new closing high.
Will breadth continue to wane?
Market participation
- Track the share of stocks above their moving averages.
Notes & methodology
Weekly data. Canonical TTW market, sector and style returns through October 2, 2026.
Average gaps. MTUM minus IVV total return, averaged separately within outperforming and underperforming periods. Percentage-point gaps are displayed with % and cover the full holding period, not a yearly rate.
All periods. 3M: +0.4% · 6M: +0.9% · 1Y: +1.4% · 3Y: +3.2% · 5Y: +1.4% · 10Y: +6.3%. These averages include all outperforming and underperforming periods.
Sample. 3M: 159 windows · 6M: 156 windows · 1Y: 150 windows · 3Y: 126 windows · 5Y: 102 windows · 10Y: 42 windows. Completed month ends April 2013–September 2026. No ties. Windows overlap; 42 ten-year windows are not 42 independent decades.
MTUM vs. IVV total returns; completed month ends, April 2013–September 2026. Frequencies use all complete windows. Average gaps are calculated separately within outperforming and underperforming periods. Gaps are cumulative percentage-point differences, not annualized. Underperformance is not necessarily an investment loss. Windows overlap.
AI assistance. This issue was prepared with AI-assisted research and drafting and reviewed by TrendToWealth before publication.
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