Weekly Market UpdateWeek of Oct 12, 2026Oct 9, 2026
S&P 500 Near a Record With Narrow Breadth: What Happens Next?
On Sep 25 and Oct 2, fewer than half of S&P 500 stocks were above their 200-day average while the index was within 5% of its record. In the 10 earlier cases since 1996, the S&P 500 fell more than 10% within the next quarter 4 times.
Three Things to Know This Week
Narrowest breadth near a record since 2000
43.8% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average on Oct 2
- Only precedent within 1% of a record: Nov 1999–Mar 2000.
- Oct 9: breadth 50.6%; S&P 500 +1.1% for the week, 0.1% below its record.
Utilities led sectors
Utilities +4.0% | Information Technology −0.5%
- 9 of 11 sectors rose.
Broad commodities lead the year
Broad commodities +47.4% YTD
- S&P 500: +15.1% year to date.
State of the Stock Market
S&P 500 · Oct 9, 2026
Trend: Strong
Above 3 of 3 moving averages · 17 trading sessions in this strong trend since Sep 17, 2026
Risk
Low & Falling
63-day realized vol 10.9% · reference 15.0%
From 52-week high
-0.1%
52-week high set Oct 6, 2026
Position
Near Trend
Relative to the S&P 500's own 200-day trend history
Distance from trend
50-Day
+1.6%
17 trading sessions above since Sep 17, 2026
100-Day
+3.2%
128 trading sessions above since Apr 9, 2026
200-Day
+8.2%
129 trading sessions above since Apr 8, 2026
Broad markets
Total returns across major market exposures and horizons, shown side by side.
Tip: click any ticker to analyze it.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad commoditiesDBC | Broad commodities, Week to date: up 1.3 percent | Broad commodities, Month to date: up 2.0 percent | Broad commodities, Quarter to date: up 2.0 percent | Broad commodities, Year to date: up 47.4 percent | Broad commodities, 1 year: up 52.0 percent | Broad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.3 percent | Broad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.5 percent | Broad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
| Emerging marketsEEM | Emerging markets, Week to date: down 1.3 percent | Emerging markets, Month to date: up 0.0 percent | Emerging markets, Quarter to date: up 0.0 percent | Emerging markets, Year to date: up 22.7 percent | Emerging markets, 1 year: up 25.6 percent | Emerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.8 percent | Emerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.1 percent | Emerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.2 percent |
| U.S. small companiesIJR | U.S. small companies, Week to date: down 0.7 percent | U.S. small companies, Month to date: up 1.1 percent | U.S. small companies, Quarter to date: up 1.1 percent | U.S. small companies, Year to date: up 15.4 percent | U.S. small companies, 1 year: up 16.0 percent | U.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.1 percent | U.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.0 percent | U.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.0 percent |
| U.S. equitiesIVV | U.S. equities, Week to date: up 1.1 percent | U.S. equities, Month to date: up 2.1 percent | U.S. equities, Quarter to date: up 2.1 percent | U.S. equities, Year to date: up 15.1 percent | U.S. equities, 1 year: up 17.7 percent | U.S. equities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.5 percent | U.S. equities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.8 percent | U.S. equities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.6 percent |
| International developedEFA | International developed, Week to date: down 0.5 percent | International developed, Month to date: down 0.5 percent | International developed, Quarter to date: down 0.5 percent | International developed, Year to date: up 9.4 percent | International developed, 1 year: up 12.5 percent | International developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.4 percent | International developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 9.2 percent | International developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.0 percent |
| Real estateVNQ | Real estate, Week to date: up 1.3 percent | Real estate, Month to date: up 1.1 percent | Real estate, Quarter to date: up 1.1 percent | Real estate, Year to date: up 5.4 percent | Real estate, 1 year: up 2.9 percent | Real estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.1 percent | Real estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.4 percent | Real estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 5.1 percent |
| High-yield creditHYG | High-yield credit, Week to date: up 0.4 percent | High-yield credit, Month to date: up 0.5 percent | High-yield credit, Quarter to date: up 0.5 percent | High-yield credit, Year to date: up 0.1 percent | High-yield credit, 1 year: up 1.3 percent | High-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 8.3 percent | High-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.4 percent | High-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.2 percent |
| U.S. aggregate bondsAGG | U.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: up 0.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: up 0.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: up 0.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 2.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: down 1.7 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.6 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.2 percent |
| GoldGLD | Gold, Week to date: up 1.2 percent | Gold, Month to date: up 1.0 percent | Gold, Quarter to date: up 1.0 percent | Gold, Year to date: down 3.0 percent | Gold, 1 year: up 7.5 percent | Gold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 31.4 percent | Gold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 18.6 percent | Gold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.4 percent |
| Investment-grade creditLQD | Investment-grade credit, Week to date: up 0.6 percent | Investment-grade credit, Month to date: up 0.7 percent | Investment-grade credit, Quarter to date: up 0.7 percent | Investment-grade credit, Year to date: down 3.7 percent | Investment-grade credit, 1 year: down 3.8 percent | Investment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 5.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 1.0 percent | Investment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.8 percent |
| Long-duration TreasuriesTLT | Long-duration Treasuries, Week to date: up 0.6 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Month to date: up 0.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: up 0.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 7.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 year: down 8.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 1.5 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.0 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.5 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 9, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
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S&P 500 sectors
Total returns for the 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EnergyXLE | Energy, Week to date: up 3.6 percent | Energy, Month to date: up 5.8 percent | Energy, Quarter to date: up 5.8 percent | Energy, Year to date: up 48.4 percent | Energy, 1 year: up 50.6 percent | Energy, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.6 percent | Energy, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 22.4 percent | Energy, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.6 percent |
| Information TechnologyXLK | Information Technology, Week to date: down 0.5 percent | Information Technology, Month to date: up 1.5 percent | Information Technology, Quarter to date: up 1.5 percent | Information Technology, Year to date: up 38.1 percent | Information Technology, 1 year: up 40.2 percent | Information Technology, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 34.0 percent | Information Technology, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 22.1 percent | Information Technology, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 24.9 percent |
| Health CareXLV | Health Care, Week to date: up 2.8 percent | Health Care, Month to date: up 1.4 percent | Health Care, Quarter to date: up 1.4 percent | Health Care, Year to date: up 11.3 percent | Health Care, 1 year: up 19.5 percent | Health Care, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.2 percent | Health Care, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.8 percent | Health Care, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.8 percent |
| MaterialsXLB | Materials, Week to date: up 1.2 percent | Materials, Month to date: up 1.5 percent | Materials, Quarter to date: up 1.5 percent | Materials, Year to date: up 9.9 percent | Materials, 1 year: up 11.5 percent | Materials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent | Materials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.0 percent | Materials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
| IndustrialsXLI | Industrials, Week to date: down 0.4 percent | Industrials, Month to date: up 1.4 percent | Industrials, Quarter to date: up 1.4 percent | Industrials, Year to date: up 9.1 percent | Industrials, 1 year: up 10.6 percent | Industrials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.4 percent | Industrials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.5 percent | Industrials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 13.3 percent |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | Consumer Staples, Week to date: up 3.6 percent | Consumer Staples, Month to date: up 3.5 percent | Consumer Staples, Quarter to date: up 3.5 percent | Consumer Staples, Year to date: up 7.4 percent | Consumer Staples, 1 year: up 9.1 percent | Consumer Staples, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.5 percent | Consumer Staples, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.2 percent | Consumer Staples, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 7.6 percent |
| Real EstateXLRE | Real Estate, Week to date: up 2.0 percent | Real Estate, Month to date: up 1.7 percent | Real Estate, Quarter to date: up 1.7 percent | Real Estate, Year to date: up 5.6 percent | Real Estate, 1 year: up 2.4 percent | Real Estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.2 percent | Real Estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 2.0 percent | Real Estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 6.6 percent |
| FinancialsXLF | Financials, Week to date: up 2.3 percent | Financials, Month to date: up 2.5 percent | Financials, Quarter to date: up 2.5 percent | Financials, Year to date: down 0.1 percent | Financials, 1 year: up 3.1 percent | Financials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.0 percent | Financials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.8 percent | Financials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.8 percent |
| UtilitiesXLU | Utilities, Week to date: up 4.0 percent | Utilities, Month to date: up 5.0 percent | Utilities, Quarter to date: up 5.0 percent | Utilities, Year to date: down 3.0 percent | Utilities, 1 year: down 4.9 percent | Utilities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.2 percent | Utilities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.1 percent | Utilities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.1 percent |
| Communication ServicesXLC | Communication Services, Week to date: up 0.1 percent | Communication Services, Month to date: down 0.5 percent | Communication Services, Quarter to date: down 0.5 percent | Communication Services, Year to date: down 5.4 percent | Communication Services, 1 year: down 4.0 percent | Communication Services, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.5 percent | Communication Services, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.5 percent | Communication Services, 10 years annualised, annualised: not available |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | Consumer Discretionary, Week to date: up 2.6 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Month to date: up 3.7 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Quarter to date: up 3.7 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Year to date: down 5.5 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 1 year: down 4.5 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 12.9 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.2 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.1 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 9, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Investment styles
Total returns across major U.S. style and factor exposures across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum factorMTUM | Momentum factor, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | Momentum factor, Month to date: up 0.8 percent | Momentum factor, Quarter to date: up 0.8 percent | Momentum factor, Year to date: up 28.4 percent | Momentum factor, 1 year: up 26.7 percent | Momentum factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 32.6 percent | Momentum factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.6 percent | Momentum factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 16.8 percent |
| Large GrowthIVW | Large Growth, Week to date: up 0.9 percent | Large Growth, Month to date: up 2.1 percent | Large Growth, Quarter to date: up 2.1 percent | Large Growth, Year to date: up 18.2 percent | Large Growth, 1 year: up 20.4 percent | Large Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 28.6 percent | Large Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 14.9 percent | Large Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 18.1 percent |
| Mid GrowthIJK | Mid Growth, Week to date: up 0.2 percent | Mid Growth, Month to date: up 2.2 percent | Mid Growth, Quarter to date: up 2.2 percent | Mid Growth, Year to date: up 16.1 percent | Mid Growth, 1 year: up 16.9 percent | Mid Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 17.1 percent | Mid Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.9 percent | Mid Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.0 percent |
| Small GrowthIJT | Small Growth, Week to date: down 0.5 percent | Small Growth, Month to date: up 1.4 percent | Small Growth, Quarter to date: up 1.4 percent | Small Growth, Year to date: up 15.8 percent | Small Growth, 1 year: up 15.1 percent | Small Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.6 percent | Small Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.3 percent | Small Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent |
| Quality factorQUAL | Quality factor, Week to date: up 1.2 percent | Quality factor, Month to date: up 2.2 percent | Quality factor, Quarter to date: up 2.2 percent | Quality factor, Year to date: up 15.0 percent | Quality factor, 1 year: up 16.7 percent | Quality factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.6 percent | Quality factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.4 percent | Quality factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 14.6 percent |
| Small ValueIJS | Small Value, Week to date: down 1.0 percent | Small Value, Month to date: up 0.8 percent | Small Value, Quarter to date: up 0.8 percent | Small Value, Year to date: up 14.7 percent | Small Value, 1 year: up 16.6 percent | Small Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.2 percent | Small Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.2 percent | Small Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent |
| Equal WeightRSP | Equal Weight, Week to date: up 1.6 percent | Equal Weight, Month to date: up 2.4 percent | Equal Weight, Quarter to date: up 2.4 percent | Equal Weight, Year to date: up 12.5 percent | Equal Weight, 1 year: up 13.2 percent | Equal Weight, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.9 percent | Equal Weight, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.6 percent | Equal Weight, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.8 percent |
| Large ValueIVE | Large Value, Week to date: up 1.5 percent | Large Value, Month to date: up 2.1 percent | Large Value, Quarter to date: up 2.1 percent | Large Value, Year to date: up 11.2 percent | Large Value, 1 year: up 14.0 percent | Large Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 17.1 percent | Large Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.4 percent | Large Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.8 percent |
| Minimum VolatilityUSMV | Minimum Volatility, Week to date: up 2.4 percent | Minimum Volatility, Month to date: up 3.2 percent | Minimum Volatility, Quarter to date: up 3.2 percent | Minimum Volatility, Year to date: up 7.9 percent | Minimum Volatility, 1 year: up 7.2 percent | Minimum Volatility, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.4 percent | Minimum Volatility, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.9 percent | Minimum Volatility, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.4 percent |
| Mid ValueIJJ | Mid Value, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | Mid Value, Month to date: up 1.9 percent | Mid Value, Quarter to date: up 1.9 percent | Mid Value, Year to date: up 7.8 percent | Mid Value, 1 year: up 8.9 percent | Mid Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.5 percent | Mid Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.8 percent | Mid Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 9, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Chart of the Week
Worst S&P 500 drop in the next quarter, each time since 1996
Nov 1998−5.1%
Feb 1999−5.0%
Oct 1999−10.2%
Aug 2007−9.9%
Oct 2007−17.8%
Jul 2015−11.9%
Oct 2015−13.0%
Mar 2016−5.6%
Jun 2025−2.4%
Mar 2026−8.9%
Each bar is one time the S&P 500 was within 5% of its record while fewer than half its stocks were above their 200-day average. Bar length: the largest drop below the record in the next 13 weeks. · Data through Oct 9, 2026
Breadth is the share of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average. The drop exceeded 10% in 4 of 10 cases. The current case began Sep 2026 and is too recent to include.
Three Things We're Watching
Does breadth stay above 50%?
50.6% on Oct 9
- Oct 2: 43.8%.
Does the S&P 500 close more than 10% below its record?
0.1% below
- Week: +1.1%.
How many sectors rise?
9 of 11
- Top: Utilities +4.0%.
Notes & methodology
Data. Market, sector and style returns through October 9, 2026.
Breadth. Share of S&P 500 members on each date above their 40-week average, the weekly equivalent of the 200-day.
Sample. 44 scored weeks with the S&P 500 within 5% of its record and breadth under 50%. Weeks from the last 13 weeks are not scored.
Stretches. Runs of qualifying weeks no more than 4 weeks apart. Weeks within a stretch overlap and are not independent.
Weekly, 1996-10-04 to 2026-10-09. Near record: Friday close within 5% of the all-time closing high. Outcome: lowest daily close vs the record over the next 13 weeks.
AI assistance. This issue was prepared with AI-assisted research and drafting and reviewed by TrendToWealth before publication.
Explore full cross-asset returns and screening on the Market Map.