Weekly Market UpdateWeek of Oct 19, 2026Oct 16, 2026
The pullback beneath the surface
Three Things to Know This Week
Momentum has crossed the correction threshold
MTUM: 13.2% below its 52-week high
- Momentum fell 8.4% for the week; technology fell 7.7%.
- Technology is 8.2% below its high, still short of a 10% drawdown.
The sector picture was more balanced
7 of 11 sectors rose for the week
- Consumer staples gained 5.0%, energy 4.9% and health care 3.5%.
- Equal-weight S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the capitalization-weighted proxy fell 2.0%.
Participation still needs repair
47.1% above the 50-day average
- 54.1% of covered S&P 500 constituents were above their 200-day average.
- Breadth covers 495 of 503 constituents at the same closing session.
State of the Stock Market
S&P 500 · Oct 16, 2026
Trend: Positive
Above 2 of 3 moving averages · 1 trading session in this positive trend since Oct 16, 2026
Risk
Low & Falling
63-day realized vol 11.1% · reference 15.0%
From 52-week high
-2.0%
52-week high set Oct 6, 2026
Position
Below Trend
Relative to the S&P 500's own 200-day trend history
Distance from trend
50-Day
-0.5%
1 trading session below since Oct 16, 2026
100-Day
+1.0%
133 trading sessions above since Apr 9, 2026
200-Day
+5.8%
134 trading sessions above since Apr 8, 2026
Broad markets
Total returns across major market exposures and horizons, shown side by side.
Tip: click any ticker to analyze it.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad commoditiesDBC | Broad commodities, Week to date: up 2.4 percent | Broad commodities, Month to date: up 4.4 percent | Broad commodities, Quarter to date: up 4.4 percent | Broad commodities, Year to date: up 50.9 percent | Broad commodities, 1 year: up 58.0 percent | Broad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.8 percent | Broad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.3 percent | Broad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent |
| Emerging marketsEEM | Emerging markets, Week to date: down 5.9 percent | Emerging markets, Month to date: down 5.9 percent | Emerging markets, Quarter to date: down 5.9 percent | Emerging markets, Year to date: up 15.5 percent | Emerging markets, 1 year: up 23.4 percent | Emerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 21.3 percent | Emerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.4 percent | Emerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 7.8 percent |
| U.S. small companiesIJR | U.S. small companies, Week to date: down 1.2 percent | U.S. small companies, Month to date: down 0.1 percent | U.S. small companies, Quarter to date: down 0.1 percent | U.S. small companies, Year to date: up 14.0 percent | U.S. small companies, 1 year: up 20.5 percent | U.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.0 percent | U.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.6 percent | U.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent |
| U.S. equitiesIVV | U.S. equities, Week to date: down 2.0 percent | U.S. equities, Month to date: up 0.1 percent | U.S. equities, Quarter to date: up 0.1 percent | U.S. equities, Year to date: up 12.9 percent | U.S. equities, 1 year: up 18.2 percent | U.S. equities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 22.5 percent | U.S. equities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.9 percent | U.S. equities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.5 percent |
| International developedEFA | International developed, Week to date: up 0.1 percent | International developed, Month to date: down 0.3 percent | International developed, Quarter to date: down 0.3 percent | International developed, Year to date: up 9.5 percent | International developed, 1 year: up 16.1 percent | International developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.5 percent | International developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.7 percent | International developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.2 percent |
| Real estateVNQ | Real estate, Week to date: up 1.2 percent | Real estate, Month to date: up 2.4 percent | Real estate, Quarter to date: up 2.4 percent | Real estate, Year to date: up 6.6 percent | Real estate, 1 year: up 8.1 percent | Real estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.0 percent | Real estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 0.9 percent | Real estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 5.1 percent |
| High-yield creditHYG | High-yield credit, Week to date: down 0.5 percent | High-yield credit, Month to date: down 0.0 percent | High-yield credit, Quarter to date: down 0.0 percent | High-yield credit, Year to date: down 0.4 percent | High-yield credit, 1 year: up 2.0 percent | High-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 8.1 percent | High-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.2 percent | High-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.2 percent |
| U.S. aggregate bondsAGG | U.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: up 0.8 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: up 1.2 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: up 1.2 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 1.6 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: down 1.1 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.6 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.3 percent |
| Investment-grade creditLQD | Investment-grade credit, Week to date: up 1.0 percent | Investment-grade credit, Month to date: up 1.6 percent | Investment-grade credit, Quarter to date: up 1.6 percent | Investment-grade credit, Year to date: down 2.8 percent | Investment-grade credit, 1 year: down 2.7 percent | Investment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 5.3 percent | Investment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 1.0 percent | Investment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 2.0 percent |
| GoldGLD | Gold, Week to date: down 0.7 percent | Gold, Month to date: up 0.3 percent | Gold, Quarter to date: up 0.3 percent | Gold, Year to date: down 3.6 percent | Gold, 1 year: up 3.5 percent | Gold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 28.8 percent | Gold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 18.2 percent | Gold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.3 percent |
| Long-duration TreasuriesTLT | Long-duration Treasuries, Week to date: up 2.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Month to date: up 3.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: up 3.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 5.0 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 year: down 7.6 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 1.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.0 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.1 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 16, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Explore Broad Betas →
Open the full multi-horizon leadership tool to compare markets, styles, sectors, and time periods.
S&P 500 sectors
Total returns for the 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EnergyXLE | Energy, Week to date: up 4.9 percent | Energy, Month to date: up 11.0 percent | Energy, Quarter to date: up 11.0 percent | Energy, Year to date: up 55.6 percent | Energy, 1 year: up 64.7 percent | Energy, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.8 percent | Energy, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 23.2 percent | Energy, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.3 percent |
| Information TechnologyXLK | Information Technology, Week to date: down 7.7 percent | Information Technology, Month to date: down 6.3 percent | Information Technology, Quarter to date: down 6.3 percent | Information Technology, Year to date: up 27.4 percent | Information Technology, 1 year: up 32.3 percent | Information Technology, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 30.4 percent | Information Technology, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 19.5 percent | Information Technology, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 24.0 percent |
| Health CareXLV | Health Care, Week to date: up 3.5 percent | Health Care, Month to date: up 4.9 percent | Health Care, Quarter to date: up 4.9 percent | Health Care, Year to date: up 15.1 percent | Health Care, 1 year: up 25.9 percent | Health Care, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 12.4 percent | Health Care, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.3 percent | Health Care, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.6 percent |
| MaterialsXLB | Materials, Week to date: up 3.0 percent | Materials, Month to date: up 4.6 percent | Materials, Quarter to date: up 4.6 percent | Materials, Year to date: up 13.2 percent | Materials, 1 year: up 18.8 percent | Materials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.4 percent | Materials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.9 percent | Materials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.3 percent |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | Consumer Staples, Week to date: up 5.0 percent | Consumer Staples, Month to date: up 8.7 percent | Consumer Staples, Quarter to date: up 8.7 percent | Consumer Staples, Year to date: up 12.8 percent | Consumer Staples, 1 year: up 14.5 percent | Consumer Staples, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 12.2 percent | Consumer Staples, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.0 percent | Consumer Staples, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.1 percent |
| IndustrialsXLI | Industrials, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | Industrials, Month to date: up 0.5 percent | Industrials, Quarter to date: up 0.5 percent | Industrials, Year to date: up 8.1 percent | Industrials, 1 year: up 12.9 percent | Industrials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.7 percent | Industrials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.9 percent | Industrials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 13.2 percent |
| Real EstateXLRE | Real Estate, Week to date: up 1.3 percent | Real Estate, Month to date: up 3.1 percent | Real Estate, Quarter to date: up 3.1 percent | Real Estate, Year to date: up 7.0 percent | Real Estate, 1 year: up 7.3 percent | Real Estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.8 percent | Real Estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.6 percent | Real Estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 6.6 percent |
| FinancialsXLF | Financials, Week to date: up 1.4 percent | Financials, Month to date: up 4.0 percent | Financials, Quarter to date: up 4.0 percent | Financials, Year to date: up 1.4 percent | Financials, 1 year: up 7.7 percent | Financials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.4 percent | Financials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.8 percent | Financials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 13.1 percent |
| UtilitiesXLU | Utilities, Week to date: up 1.9 percent | Utilities, Month to date: up 7.0 percent | Utilities, Quarter to date: up 7.0 percent | Utilities, Year to date: down 1.1 percent | Utilities, 1 year: down 4.4 percent | Utilities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.6 percent | Utilities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.2 percent | Utilities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.2 percent |
| Communication ServicesXLC | Communication Services, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | Communication Services, Month to date: down 0.6 percent | Communication Services, Quarter to date: down 0.6 percent | Communication Services, Year to date: down 5.4 percent | Communication Services, 1 year: down 1.0 percent | Communication Services, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.4 percent | Communication Services, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.7 percent | Communication Services, 10 years annualised, annualised: not available |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | Consumer Discretionary, Week to date: down 0.3 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Month to date: up 3.3 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Quarter to date: up 3.3 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Year to date: down 5.8 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 1 year: down 1.1 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.1 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 4.4 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.2 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 16, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Investment styles
Total returns across major U.S. style and factor exposures across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum factorMTUM | Momentum factor, Week to date: down 8.4 percent | Momentum factor, Month to date: down 7.6 percent | Momentum factor, Quarter to date: down 7.6 percent | Momentum factor, Year to date: up 17.6 percent | Momentum factor, 1 year: up 18.1 percent | Momentum factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 28.7 percent | Momentum factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.0 percent | Momentum factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.8 percent |
| Small ValueIJS | Small Value, Week to date: down 0.2 percent | Small Value, Month to date: up 0.6 percent | Small Value, Quarter to date: up 0.6 percent | Small Value, Year to date: up 14.5 percent | Small Value, 1 year: up 23.5 percent | Small Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.5 percent | Small Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.1 percent | Small Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.5 percent |
| Quality factorQUAL | Quality factor, Week to date: down 1.0 percent | Quality factor, Month to date: up 1.2 percent | Quality factor, Quarter to date: up 1.2 percent | Quality factor, Year to date: up 13.9 percent | Quality factor, 1 year: up 18.8 percent | Quality factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.8 percent | Quality factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.7 percent | Quality factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 14.6 percent |
| Small GrowthIJT | Small Growth, Week to date: down 2.2 percent | Small Growth, Month to date: down 0.8 percent | Small Growth, Quarter to date: down 0.8 percent | Small Growth, Year to date: up 13.2 percent | Small Growth, 1 year: up 17.4 percent | Small Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.1 percent | Small Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 4.7 percent | Small Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent |
| Equal WeightRSP | Equal Weight, Week to date: up 0.5 percent | Equal Weight, Month to date: up 2.9 percent | Equal Weight, Quarter to date: up 2.9 percent | Equal Weight, Year to date: up 13.1 percent | Equal Weight, 1 year: up 17.5 percent | Equal Weight, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 17.0 percent | Equal Weight, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.4 percent | Equal Weight, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.0 percent |
| Large GrowthIVW | Large Growth, Week to date: down 4.3 percent | Large Growth, Month to date: down 2.3 percent | Large Growth, Quarter to date: down 2.3 percent | Large Growth, Year to date: up 13.0 percent | Large Growth, 1 year: up 17.9 percent | Large Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 26.4 percent | Large Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.3 percent | Large Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 17.7 percent |
| Large ValueIVE | Large Value, Week to date: up 1.0 percent | Large Value, Month to date: up 3.1 percent | Large Value, Quarter to date: up 3.1 percent | Large Value, Year to date: up 12.3 percent | Large Value, 1 year: up 18.2 percent | Large Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 17.4 percent | Large Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.4 percent | Large Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.0 percent |
| Mid GrowthIJK | Mid Growth, Week to date: down 3.5 percent | Mid Growth, Month to date: down 1.4 percent | Mid Growth, Quarter to date: down 1.4 percent | Mid Growth, Year to date: up 12.1 percent | Mid Growth, 1 year: up 16.8 percent | Mid Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.9 percent | Mid Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.6 percent | Mid Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.7 percent |
| Minimum VolatilityUSMV | Minimum Volatility, Week to date: up 0.7 percent | Minimum Volatility, Month to date: up 3.9 percent | Minimum Volatility, Quarter to date: up 3.9 percent | Minimum Volatility, Year to date: up 8.7 percent | Minimum Volatility, 1 year: up 9.3 percent | Minimum Volatility, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.4 percent | Minimum Volatility, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.7 percent | Minimum Volatility, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.5 percent |
| Mid ValueIJJ | Mid Value, Week to date: up 0.7 percent | Mid Value, Month to date: up 2.7 percent | Mid Value, Quarter to date: up 2.7 percent | Mid Value, Year to date: up 8.6 percent | Mid Value, 1 year: up 14.7 percent | Mid Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.1 percent | Mid Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.6 percent | Mid Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Oct 16, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Chart of the Week
How far have the leaders fallen?
Momentum (MTUM)-13.2%
Utilities (XLU)-10.4%
Industrials (XLI)-10.1%
Consumer discretionary (XLY)-9.2%
Technology (XLK)-8.2%
Real estate (XLRE)-7.5%
Communication services (XLC)-7.3%
Materials (XLB)-4.9%
Financials (XLF)-4.5%
S&P 500 (IVV)-2.0%
Consumer staples (XLP)-1.4%
Energy (XLE)+0.0%
Health care (XLV)+0.0%
Distance from the 52-week high, using adjusted weekly closes. More negative means farther below the high; zero means at the high. · Data through Oct 16, 2026
Momentum is already more than 10% below its high. Technology is 8.2% below, while utilities and industrials are also more than 10% below. The S&P 500 is only 2.0% below its own high.
Three Things We're Watching
Do momentum and technology stabilize?
MTUM: -13.2% from its high
- Look for narrowing drawdowns in both exposures, rather than strength in only one.
- A deeper retreat would indicate that the pressure remains concentrated in former leaders.
Does strength extend beyond the leading sectors?
7 of 11 sectors positive this week
- Watch whether consumer staples, energy and health care retain their strength.
- Check whether technology and the weaker cyclical sectors join them.
Does shorter-term breadth improve?
47.1% above the 50-day average
- An increasing share above both the shorter- and longer-term averages would support a broader advance.
- An index bounce without improving participation would leave the underlying picture mixed.
Notes & methodology
Weekly total returns from adjusted closes, through October 16, 2026. The market-state panel uses its separately labelled daily trend observations. Each exposure uses the ETF named in its row. The chart measures distance from the highest adjusted weekly close in the trailing 52-week window, not an intraday high or a one-week return. Daily market-state high measures can differ because their observation frequency differs.
AI assistance. This issue was prepared with AI-assisted research and drafting and reviewed by TrendToWealth before publication.
Explore full cross-asset returns and screening on the Market Map.