Gold and commodities led as equity participation softened
Real assets extended their lead while broad equity participation remained positive but weakened at the shorter horizon.
The take
Gold and commodities led the week, equities lagged despite broad long-term participation, and bonds offered little defensive confirmation.
What is leading, and over what horizon
One row per market exposure, nine horizons across. A move that leads over a day often lags over a decade, and the point of putting them side by side is that you can see which is which.
| Exposure | 1D | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. equitiesIVV | U.S. equities, 1 day: up 0.4 percent | U.S. equities, Week to date: down 1.4 percent | U.S. equities, Month to date: up 2.5 percent | U.S. equities, Quarter to date: up 2.7 percent | U.S. equities, Year to date: up 12.3 percent | U.S. equities, 1 year: up 20.4 percent | U.S. equities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 22.2 percent | U.S. equities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.1 percent | U.S. equities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.3 percent |
| U.S. small companiesIJR | U.S. small companies, 1 day: up 0.6 percent | U.S. small companies, Week to date: down 2.1 percent | U.S. small companies, Month to date: up 1.3 percent | U.S. small companies, Quarter to date: down 0.7 percent | U.S. small companies, Year to date: up 22.6 percent | U.S. small companies, 1 year: up 30.4 percent | U.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.1 percent | U.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.0 percent | U.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.8 percent |
| International developedEFA | International developed, 1 day: up 0.8 percent | International developed, Week to date: down 0.4 percent | International developed, Month to date: up 2.5 percent | International developed, Quarter to date: up 4.2 percent | International developed, Year to date: up 12.7 percent | International developed, 1 year: up 21.4 percent | International developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.4 percent | International developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 9.8 percent | International developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.5 percent |
| Emerging marketsEEM | Emerging markets, 1 day: up 0.8 percent | Emerging markets, Week to date: up 0.8 percent | Emerging markets, Month to date: up 4.7 percent | Emerging markets, Quarter to date: down 1.9 percent | Emerging markets, Year to date: up 22.7 percent | Emerging markets, 1 year: up 37.0 percent | Emerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.4 percent | Emerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.8 percent | Emerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.3 percent |
| Investment-grade creditLQD | Investment-grade credit, 1 day: down 0.1 percent | Investment-grade credit, Week to date: down 0.2 percent | Investment-grade credit, Month to date: up 0.1 percent | Investment-grade credit, Quarter to date: down 2.5 percent | Investment-grade credit, Year to date: down 3.5 percent | Investment-grade credit, 1 year: up 1.0 percent | Investment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 5.2 percent | Investment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.9 percent | Investment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 2.0 percent |
| High-yield creditHYG | High-yield credit, 1 day: up 0.1 percent | High-yield credit, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | High-yield credit, Month to date: up 0.7 percent | High-yield credit, Quarter to date: up 0.0 percent | High-yield credit, Year to date: down 0.8 percent | High-yield credit, 1 year: up 4.9 percent | High-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 8.7 percent | High-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.8 percent | High-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.6 percent |
| Long-duration TreasuriesTLT | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 day: down 0.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Week to date: up 0.0 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Month to date: up 0.2 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: down 4.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 5.5 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 year: down 0.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: down 0.2 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.4 percent |
| U.S. aggregate bondsAGG | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 day: down 0.1 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: up 0.3 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: down 1.3 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 2.2 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: up 2.4 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.5 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.3 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.4 percent |
| GoldGLD | Gold, 1 day: up 2.0 percent | Gold, Week to date: up 5.4 percent | Gold, Month to date: up 13.9 percent | Gold, Quarter to date: up 14.9 percent | Gold, Year to date: up 6.8 percent | Gold, 1 year: up 37.7 percent | Gold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 34.2 percent | Gold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 20.5 percent | Gold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.7 percent |
| Broad commoditiesDBC | Broad commodities, 1 day: up 0.5 percent | Broad commodities, Week to date: up 4.2 percent | Broad commodities, Month to date: up 6.1 percent | Broad commodities, Quarter to date: up 17.3 percent | Broad commodities, Year to date: up 39.8 percent | Broad commodities, 1 year: up 48.4 percent | Broad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.9 percent | Broad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 15.0 percent | Broad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent |
| Real estateVNQ | Real estate, 1 day: down 0.1 percent | Real estate, Week to date: down 0.3 percent | Real estate, Month to date: down 0.5 percent | Real estate, Quarter to date: up 2.1 percent | Real estate, Year to date: up 11.3 percent | Real estate, 1 year: up 14.1 percent | Real estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.3 percent | Real estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 2.3 percent | Real estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 5.2 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Aug 21, 2026. — marks an observation we do not have. Annualised horizons are rates per year; the shorter horizons are cumulative.
Chart of the week
Bar chart ranking seven broad asset exposures by week-to-date total return. Gold leads at 5.4%, followed by broad commodities at 4.2%; investment-grade credit is last among the seven shown at negative 0.2%.
Source: Adjusted closes via security_measures_latest and security_period_anchor. · Data through Aug 21, 2026
Development 1
- Gold led the week at +5.4%.
- Against the same exposure's +6.8% year to date and +37.7% one-year return.
Development 2
- U.S. small companies was the weakest of the 11 exposures at -2.1%.
- Its year-to-date return stands at +22.6%.
Development 3
- Broad commodities holds the year-to-date lead at +39.8%.
- Ranked 2 of 11 over the past week.
Market conditions
Six neutral readings of the conditions behind the returns. Each states what it measures and where the measurement comes from; none of them is an instruction.
How much of the index is participating, rather than how far the index itself has moved.
Share of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 200-day moving average: 72% of 499 names. 56% are above the 50-day. · security_measures_latest, via editorial run 2026-08-21
Which broad exposures are ahead, and whether that ordering is the same one as a month ago.
Broad Commodities leads the core exposures year to date at +39.8%, unchanged from four weeks ago. 0 of 27 core exposures changed standing between the month-to-date and one-year horizons. · editorial run 2026-08-21, Core Markets lens
How far apart individual securities are, which is a different question from how far the index moved.
The middle half of S&P 500 year-to-date returns spans -2.6% to +26.6%, an interquartile range of 29.2 percentage points. 64% of names sit more than 10% below their peak. · security_period_returns and security_measures_latest, via editorial run 2026-08-21
Three numbers we’re carrying forward
Measurements, not predictions. We will print these again next week beside their new values.
Does the share of S&P 500 members above their 50-day average recover?
Short-horizon participation trails the 72% reading above the 200-day average.
Can gold retain weekly leadership after its sharp advance?
Persistence would reinforce the broader real-asset trend; reversal would suggest a one-week burst.
Do U.S. large-cap equities recover from their negative week?
A recovery with firmer breadth would challenge the current rotation away from equities.