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Weekly Market UpdateIssue 004Aug 31, 2026Broad markets4 min read

Long Treasuries Led the Week; Energy Remains the Top S&P 500 Sector Year-to-Date

Long Treasuries returned +1.0% for the week. Energy remained the leading S&P 500 sector year-to-date at +40.2% and represented 3.6% of the float-adjusted S&P 500 at the latest weekly observation.

Data through Aug 28, 2026Subscribe

The take

Long Treasuries led the weekly cross-asset ranking, Energy led the S&P 500 sector ranking year-to-date, and S&P 500 participation stood at 67.4% above the 200-day average and 45.3% above the 50-day average.

What is leading, and over what horizon

One row per market exposure, nine horizons across. A move that leads over a day often lags over a decade, and the point of putting them side by side is that you can see which is which.

What is leading, and over what horizon. Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Aug 28, 2026.
Exposure1DWTDMTDQTDYTD1Y3Y Ann.5Y Ann.10Y Ann.
U.S. equitiesIVVU.S. equities, 1 day: down 0.2 percentU.S. equities, Week to date: up 0.5 percentU.S. equities, Month to date: up 3.0 percentU.S. equities, Quarter to date: up 3.2 percentU.S. equities, Year to date: up 13.5 percentU.S. equities, 1 year: up 21.0 percentU.S. equities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 22.4 percentU.S. equities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.2 percentU.S. equities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.3 percent
U.S. small companiesIJRU.S. small companies, 1 day: down 0.8 percentU.S. small companies, Week to date: down 1.2 percentU.S. small companies, Month to date: up 0.1 percentU.S. small companies, Quarter to date: down 1.8 percentU.S. small companies, Year to date: up 21.7 percentU.S. small companies, 1 year: up 28.9 percentU.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.6 percentU.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.7 percentU.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.6 percent
International developedEFAInternational developed, 1 day: down 0.3 percentInternational developed, Week to date: down 0.5 percentInternational developed, Month to date: up 2.0 percentInternational developed, Quarter to date: up 3.7 percentInternational developed, Year to date: up 13.9 percentInternational developed, 1 year: up 20.8 percentInternational developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.2 percentInternational developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 9.7 percentInternational developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent
Emerging marketsEEMEmerging markets, 1 day: down 0.7 percentEmerging markets, Week to date: up 0.0 percentEmerging markets, Month to date: up 4.8 percentEmerging markets, Quarter to date: down 1.9 percentEmerging markets, Year to date: up 23.4 percentEmerging markets, 1 year: up 37.1 percentEmerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.4 percentEmerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.8 percentEmerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.3 percent
Investment-grade creditLQDInvestment-grade credit, 1 day: down 0.4 percentInvestment-grade credit, Week to date: up 0.4 percentInvestment-grade credit, Month to date: up 0.5 percentInvestment-grade credit, Quarter to date: down 2.2 percentInvestment-grade credit, Year to date: down 3.1 percentInvestment-grade credit, 1 year: up 1.4 percentInvestment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 5.3 percentInvestment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.8 percentInvestment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 2.1 percent
High-yield creditHYGHigh-yield credit, 1 day: down 0.2 percentHigh-yield credit, Week to date: up 0.2 percentHigh-yield credit, Month to date: up 0.8 percentHigh-yield credit, Quarter to date: up 0.7 percentHigh-yield credit, Year to date: up 2.4 percentHigh-yield credit, 1 year: up 5.1 percentHigh-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 8.7 percentHigh-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.8 percentHigh-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.6 percent
Long-duration TreasuriesTLTLong-duration Treasuries, 1 day: down 0.3 percentLong-duration Treasuries, Week to date: up 1.0 percentLong-duration Treasuries, Month to date: up 1.2 percentLong-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: down 3.4 percentLong-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 2.4 percentLong-duration Treasuries, 1 year: up 0.3 percentLong-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 0.1 percentLong-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.1 percentLong-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.3 percent
U.S. aggregate bondsAGGU.S. aggregate bonds, 1 day: down 0.3 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: up 0.1 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: up 0.5 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: down 0.8 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 0.1 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: up 2.5 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.5 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.3 percentU.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.4 percent
GoldGLDGold, 1 day: down 3.2 percentGold, Week to date: down 3.4 percentGold, Month to date: up 10.1 percentGold, Quarter to date: up 11.0 percentGold, Year to date: up 3.2 percentGold, 1 year: up 33.0 percentGold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 32.6 percentGold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 19.7 percentGold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.3 percent
Broad commoditiesDBCBroad commodities, 1 day: down 0.2 percentBroad commodities, Week to date: down 1.5 percentBroad commodities, Month to date: up 4.6 percentBroad commodities, Quarter to date: up 15.5 percentBroad commodities, Year to date: up 37.7 percentBroad commodities, 1 year: up 46.2 percentBroad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.4 percentBroad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 14.6 percentBroad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.2 percent
Real estateVNQReal estate, 1 day: down 0.4 percentReal estate, Week to date: down 1.3 percentReal estate, Month to date: down 1.7 percentReal estate, Quarter to date: up 0.8 percentReal estate, Year to date: up 12.0 percentReal estate, 1 year: up 12.6 percentReal estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.8 percentReal estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 2.0 percentReal estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 5.0 percent

Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Aug 28, 2026. marks an observation we do not have. Annualised horizons are rates per year; the shorter horizons are cumulative.

Chart of the week

Week-to-date returns across fourteen exposures

Bar chart of week-to-date total return for fourteen asset-class exposures, ranked highest to lowest. Long Treasuries are highest at 1.0% and Gold is lowest at negative 3.4%.

Long-duration Treasuries+1.0%
U.S. equities+0.5%
Investment-grade credit+0.4%
High-yield credit+0.2%
U.S. aggregate bonds+0.1%
Emerging markets+0.0%
International developed-0.5%
U.S. small companies-1.2%
Real estate-1.3%
Broad commodities-1.5%
Gold-3.4%
ShowsWeek-to-date total return for every exposure in the scorecard, ranked from highest to lowest.
Why it mattersThe weekly ordering differs from the longer-horizon ordering: Long Treasuries led the week while remaining negative year-to-date, and Broad Commodities remained among the year-to-date leaders despite a negative week.
MonitorNext week's table will place the new weekly ranking beside month-to-date and year-to-date again using the same exposures.

Source: Adjusted closes via security_measures_latest and security_period_anchor. · Data through Aug 28, 2026

Rates: long Treasuries led the week

  • Long Treasuries returned +1.0% for the week, the highest of the fourteen asset-class exposures.
  • Intermediate Treasuries returned 0.0% and Short Treasuries −0.1% over the same week. Long Treasuries were +1.2% month-to-date, −3.4% quarter-to-date and −2.4% year-to-date.
ReadingThe weekly return increased with duration: +1.0% for Long Treasuries, 0.0% for Intermediate Treasuries and −0.1% for Short Treasuries.
ConfirmAcross the longer horizons, Long Treasuries remained negative at −3.4% quarter-to-date and −2.4% year-to-date.
ChallengeThe weekly ranking therefore differs from the year-to-date ranking rather than extending it.

Real assets: weekly declines alongside positive longer horizons

  • Gold returned −3.4% for the week, the lowest of the fourteen asset-class exposures.
  • Gold remained +10.1% month-to-date and +33.0% over twelve months. Broad Commodities returned −1.5% for the week, +15.5% quarter-to-date and +37.7% year-to-date.
ReadingGold and Broad Commodities were both negative for the week while remaining positive over the month or quarter.
ConfirmGold was +10.1% month-to-date and Broad Commodities were +15.5% quarter-to-date at the same session.
ChallengeTheir weekly rankings therefore do not describe their longer-horizon rankings.

Energy: +40.2% year-to-date at 3.6% of the S&P 500

  • Energy returned −1.5% for the week and remained the leading S&P 500 sector year-to-date at +40.2%.
  • US Large Cap returned +13.5% year-to-date. Energy ranked first among the eleven sectors over twelve months at +51.1% and represented 3.6% of the float-adjusted S&P 500 at the latest weekly observation.
ReadingEnergy's sector leadership is visible over the year-to-date and twelve-month horizons while its latest weekly return was negative.
ConfirmEnergy ranked first among the eleven sectors at both +40.2% year-to-date and +51.1% over twelve months.
ChallengeAt the latest weekly observation, Energy represented 3.6% of the float-adjusted S&P 500 while ranking first among the eleven sectors year-to-date.

Market conditions

Six neutral readings of the conditions behind the returns. Each states what it measures and where the measurement comes from; none of them is an instruction.

Equity participation
mixed

How much of the index is participating, rather than how far the index itself has moved.

Share of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 200-day moving average: 67% of 497 names. 45% are above the 50-day. · security_measures_latest, via editorial run 2026-08-28

Relative leadership
stable

Which broad exposures are ahead, and whether that ordering is the same one as a month ago.

Broad Commodities leads the core exposures year to date at +37.7%, unchanged from four weeks ago. 2 of 27 core exposures changed standing between the month-to-date and one-year horizons. · editorial run 2026-08-28, Core Markets lens

Volatility
elevated

How far apart individual securities are, which is a different question from how far the index moved.

The middle half of S&P 500 year-to-date returns spans -3.4% to +26.7%, an interquartile range of 30.1 percentage points. 64% of names sit more than 10% below their peak. · security_period_returns and security_measures_latest, via editorial run 2026-08-28

Three numbers we’re carrying forward

Measurements, not predictions. We will print these again next week beside their new values.

45.3%

What is the next reading for the share of S&P 500 constituents above their 50-day average?

The August 28 reading was 45.3%, compared with 67.4% above the 200-day average and 35.8% above all three moving averages.

12.5%

What is the next reading for the share of constituents within 2% of a 52-week high?

The August 28 reading was 12.5%, while the median constituent was 16.5% below its all-time high.

30.1 pts

What is the next interquartile range of constituent year-to-date returns?

The August 28 middle half of constituents spanned −3.4% to +26.7%, an interquartile range of 30.1 percentage points.

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Performance shown is backtested and hypothetical. It does not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on decision-making. Backtested results are calculated from March 1996 through the most recent weekly data. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not investment advice. All investments carry risk, including possible loss of principal. The strategy uses survivorship-bias-aware constituent data — delisted and failed companies are included in the backtest.